【天池】新人賽-快來一塊兒挖掘幸福感！

step_1：目標肯定

　　經過問卷調查數據，選取其中多組變量來預測其對幸福感的評價。

step_2：數據獲取

　　鏈接：

　　　　https://tianchi.aliyun.com/competition/entrance/231702/information

　　下載：

　　　　train_set：happiness_train_complete.csv

　　　　test_set：happiness_test_complete.csv

　　　　index：文件中包含每一個變量對應的問卷題目，以及變量取值的含義

　　　　survey：文件是數據源的原版問卷，做爲補充以方便理解問題背景

step_3：train_set數據清洗和整理

　　使用matplotlib.pyplot依次畫出id和其它列的scatter圖

　　

　　經過圖對數據進行操做：

• happiness是樣本標籤(預測模型的真實值)，經過問卷發現其類別只有1，2，3，4，5，經過圖發現有-8，應當刪除值爲-8這些噪音數據
• 刪除id、survey_time、edu_other、join_party、property_other、invest_other列
• 其它列全部小於0的值和空值均設置爲-8
• 均值歸一化

# jupyter notebook下運行

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# 導入訓練數據集和測試集
# encoding='gbk'，不能用utf-8
train_data = pd.read_csv('happiness_train_complete.csv', encoding='gbk')
test_data = pd.read_csv('happiness_test_complete.csv', encoding='gbk')

# 訓練集樣本個數8000，每一個樣本含有140個特徵
# 測試集樣本個數2968，每一個樣本含有139個特徵
train_data.shape
test_data.shape

# 去除-8值
train_data = train_data[train_data.happiness>0]
train_data.shape

# 訓練集標籤
y = train_data.happiness

ind1 = ['id','happiness','survey_time','edu_other','join_party','property_other','invest_other']
# 訓練集樣本中刪除指定列數據
X = train_data.drop(ind, axis=1)

# 刪除測試集中刪除指定列數據
ind2 = ['id','survey_time','edu_other','join_party','property_other','invest_other']
X_test_data = test_data.drop(ind, axis=1)

# 把DateFrame類型轉爲np.array
y = np.array(y, dtype=int)
X = np.array(X, dtype=float)
X_test_data = np.array(X_test_data, dtype=float)

# 把小於0的值設置爲-8
X[X<0]=-8
X_test_data[X_test_data<0]=-8

from sklearn.impute import SimpleImputer

# 把樣本中的值爲空的特徵設置爲-8
X = SimpleImputer(fill_value=-8).fit_transform(X)
X_test_data = SimpleImputer(fill_value=-8).fit_transform(X_test_data)

from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

# 由於測試集沒有標籤，因此拆分訓練集
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X,y, random_state=666)

# 均值歸一化
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler

std = StandardScaler().fit(X_train)
X_train_std = std.transform(X_train)
X_test_std = std.transform(X_test)
std_1 = StandardScaler().fit(X)
X_std = std_1.transform(X)
X_test_data = std_1.transform(X_test_data)

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step_4：選擇算法並實現模型

　　這是一個分類問題初步定爲使用KNN算法來進行建模

from sklearn.neighbors import KNeighborsClassifier
from sklearn.model_selection import GridSearchCV

param_grid = [
    {
         'weights': ['uniform'],
       'n_neighbors':[i for i in range(1,11)]
   },
    {
         'weights': ['distance'],
       'n_neighbors': [i for i in range(1,11)],
       'p': [i for i in range(1,6)]
}]

# 網格搜索優化超參數
knn_clf_grid = KNeighborsClassifier()
grid_search = GridSearchCV(knn_clf_grid, param_grid,n_jobs=-1, verbose=2).fit(X_train_std, y_train)

# 最優超參數爲：{'n_neighbors': 10, 'p': 1, 'weights': 'distance'}
grid_search.best_estimator_
grid_search.best_params_
grid_search.best_score_

# 使用真正測試集加載模型
knn = KNeighborsClassifier(n_neighbors=10, p=1, weights='distance').fit(X_std, y)
y_pre = knn.predict(X_test_data)

# 把預測結果寫入文件
df = pd.DataFrame({'id':test_data.id, 'happniess': y_pre})
df.to_csv('forecast_3.csv', index=None)

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　　提交結果到天池等待評測分數結果score=0.6814

　　結果提交3次：

　　　　第一次：score=1.3260

　　　　第二次：數據均值歸一化score=0.9629

　　　　第三次：數據均值歸一化+網格搜索優化超參數score=0.6814

　　　　第四次：數據均值歸一化+PCA+邏輯迴歸（OvO）score=0.6099

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

# 導入train_set和test_set, encoding='gbk'，不能用utf-8
train_set = pd.read_csv('happiness_train_complete.csv', encoding='gbk')
test_set = pd.read_csv('happiness_test_complete.csv', encoding='gbk')

# 去除標籤中不合理的數據 -8
train_set = train_set[train_set.happiness>0]

y_label = train_set.happiness
ind1 = ['id','happiness','survey_time','edu_other','join_party','property_other','invest_other']
X_train_set = train_set.drop(ind1, axis=1)

ind2 = ['id','survey_time','edu_other','join_party','property_other','invest_other']
X_test_set = test_set.drop(ind2, axis=1)

y_label = np.array(y_label, dtype=int)
X_train_set = np.array(X_train_set, dtype=float)
X_test_set = np.array(X_test_set, dtype=float)

from sklearn.impute import SimpleImputer

# 空值設置爲-1
X_train_set = SimpleImputer(fill_value=-1).fit_transform(X_train_set)
X_test_set = SimpleImputer(fill_value=-1).fit_transform(X_test_set)

# # 小於0的值設置爲-1
X_train_set[X_train_set < 0] = -1
X_test_set[X_test_set < 0] = -1

from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler

# 均值歸一化
std = StandardScaler().fit(X_train_set)
X_train__std = std.transform(X_train_set)
X_test__std = std.transform(X_test_set)

# PCA降維
from sklearn.decomposition import PCA

# 包含95%的方差信息
pca = PCA(0.95)
pca.fit(X_train__std)

X_train_pca = pca.transform(X_train__std)
X_test_pca = pca.transform(X_test__std)

from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X_train_pca, y_label, random_state=666)

from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression

best_c = 0.
best_score = 0.
best_sum = 10.

for c in np.arange(0.001, 0.3, 0.001):
    log_reg2 = LogisticRegression(C=c, multi_class='multinomial', solver='newton-cg').fit(X_train, y_train)
    y_pre = log_reg2.predict(X_test)
    s = sum((y_pre-y_test)**2/len(y_test))
    score = log_reg2.score(X_test, y_test)
    if best_sum > s:
        best_sum = s
        best_c = c
        best_score = score
print('c:', best_c)
print('score:', best_score)
print('sum:', best_sum)

log_reg = LogisticRegression(C=0.01, multi_class='multinomial', solver='newton-cg').fit(X_train, y_train)
y_pre2 = log_reg.predict(X_test_pca)

df = pd.DataFrame({'id':test_set.id, 'happniess': y_pre2})
df.to_csv('log_reg_pca.csv', index=None)

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